What to Watch · how the numbers are made

What to Watch — methodology & definitions

How Databall rates games, projects audiences, and orders the calendar. Every number here is a model estimate from public data, not an official figure.

The two numbers on a game

Rating (the colored box, 1–10). "How worth watching is this?" It blends the draw of the two rosters, the tier of the league, the stakes, team quality, and how evenly matched the sides are — standardized and ranked so the best games rise to the top. The box is color-tiered so a great game reads at a glance:

Box	Rating
🟨 Gold	9.0–10 — classic
🟩 Green	8.0–8.9 — must watch
🟦 Teal	7.0–7.9 — banger
Slate	5.5–6.9 — solid
Muted	below 5.5

Model win % (the bar). Our estimate of who wins, from each team's SRS rating plus a small home edge. It's an unfitted estimate, not a betting line; for soccer it reads P(home doesn't lose) because draws aren't modeled.

Expected audience (est.)

A per-game viewership estimate, shown as a range and always labeled est. — it's unfitted (no observed per-game numbers yet), so treat it as a projection, not a measurement.

> Expected audience = League baseline × Basis × Matchup × Rivalry × Contender ( × Postseason )

·League baseline — the league's real average TV audience per event

(NFL ~17.5M, EPL ~15M, La Liga ~6M, NBA ~1.6M, MLB ~0.45M).

·Basis factor — soccer leagues are measured globally while US leagues read

domestic, so US leagues are scaled toward a common global basis. This is an editorial normalization so leagues compare fairly.

·Matchup — how big this pairing is versus an average game in that league

(the bigger draw carries it, the opponent adds), so a marquee matchup beats a small one within the same league.

·Rivalry — a lift for curated marquee rivalries (Yankees–Red Sox, Real

Madrid–Barça, Cowboys–Eagles).

·Contender — a lift when both teams sit near the top of their league.
·Postseason — playoffs, conference finals and championships multiply up (a

Finals game rates far above a regular-season one).

SRS, records & tiers

·SRS — a team's rating in points better/worse than an average team on a

neutral field. SRS = margin of victory + strength of schedule by construction, so it already accounts for who you played.

·Record — wins-losses (with draws for soccer).
·Ratings come from the most recent completed season until the new one has enough

games; unrated teams show "—", never 0.

Events & Awards

·Events — tournaments, seasons, playoffs, championships and ceremonies,

scored against the whole calendar rather than their own sport, by projected relevance.

·Awards — race trackers. Attention is a leading indicator, so the search

frontrunner often moves before the vote does; the starred name leads. The win odds shown are an attention-based illustration, not a market.

What the counts mean